Inaugural lectures
Wednesday 14th November, 2012 at 5pm – Lecture Theatre SMB.0.14 (Stewart Mason Building)
Simple Models for a Complex World
Professor Stewart Robinson, School of Business and Economics
Computer models provide simplified representations of the real world which are useful for understanding and predicting the future; but how simple should they be?
Models are widely used in, for example, forecasting weather, predicting climate change and projecting economic trends. In developing such models there is a tension between obtaining approximate results quickly from a simple model and making extended efforts to generate models with a high level of fidelity.
In this lecture we discuss why simple models are generally better. In doing so we shall demonstrate some simulation models that have been applied by business and the public sector, showing how they were used and the benefits that were obtained.
Although set in a business context, the lessons have much wider applicability for the use of models in other fields.